Texas primary election: what you need to know

Cisneros, who is backed by progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, is waging a rematch against Cuellar, a Democrat who opposed abortion rights, after narrowly failing the 2020 primary runoff. But, as Edgar Sandoval has reported, conservative Democrats may have better luck in parts of South Texas.

When the FBI raided Cuellar’s home and campaign office earlier this year, however, the political calculus has changed. The target of the FBI’s investigation remains unclear, and national Republican groups are watching to see if there’s a window for anyone emerging from the GOP primary.

That doesn’t necessarily mean Cisneros would be more likely to take the Democrats’ seat than Cuellar. If national abortion-rights organizations got involved in the race, they could influence Republicans to play more aggressively in the district.

“There’s no point in trying to really change the political dynamic in Texas, when national organizations come in, pose as liberal, wave blue flags and say we’re going to make things blue and turn things around,” Matt said. Angle, the founder of the Lone Star Project, which provides opposition research and other support for Democratic candidates in Texas.

There is a third Democrat on the ballot for the race, so neither Cuellar nor Cisneros may clear Tuesday’s primary. If the race moves to a second-round primary, that would give the Cisneros-Cuellar primary another few months to play out — and more time to see what happens with the FBI investigation.

There’s only one district built to be truly competitive in 2022. But we probably won’t know who will show up there until the second round in May.

The holder of the 15th congressional district in South Texas would have been Representative Vicente Gonzalez, a Democrat. However, he instead opted to run in a seat that was drawn to be slightly safer for Democrats after the redistricting, leaving his current seat open.

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